Analysis | Reading the Harris VP tea leaves (2024)

Spinning the wheel on Harris’s VP pick

The veepstakes. It’s Washington’s favorite parlor game.

The process to determine the second spot on the Democratic ticket is taking place at lightning speed as Vice President Harris is expected to announce her decision in the coming days.

So let’s play that parlor game, too. This column is informed by conversations with half a dozen people, but it’s important to note that none of them are Harris. Her decision could surprise us all.

So let’s explore what appears to be her shortlist.

Harris is launching a seven-state tour in the battleground states starting next Tuesday with her vice-presidential nominee, her office confirmed last night. The swing starts in Philadelphia.

Would Harris start a tour in Pennsylvania if she wasn’t planning to choose Gov. Josh Shapiro? It would feel like a slap in the face to Shapiro if she didn’t choose him. Not so, her team said, urging people not to read into the location. It is a key city in a swing state after all, and the location of the announcement is not always in the VP choice’s state.

True, per Republican strategist Kevin Madden:

Still, Shapiro is said to be a leading contender. He’s a popular governor even during polarizing times. Pennsylvania politicos think he would easily deliver the state and its 19 electoral votes for Harris, especially by appealing to disaffected moderate Republican and independent voters. And he could give an additional boost to Democratic Sen. Bob Casey’s reelection effort.

But Shapiro’s staunch support for Israel could frustrate progressives and antiwar activists who had begun to come back into Harris’s fold — especially those in the must-win battleground state of Michigan, the center of the uncommitted vote movement because of anger toward President Biden over Israel. Progressive activists also have deep concerns about Shapiro’s support of school vouchers, corporate tax cuts and fracking.

While Shapiro could alienate the far left, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz could further excite them with his liberal record as governor on green energy, free meals in schools and allowing felons to vote. He also ensured a woman’s right to an abortion in the state, which is likely to be a key electoral issue.

Walz has proven himself to be an excellent messenger who has effectively and simply referred to Republicans as “weird.” The word has caught on widely; it’s hard to talk to a Democrat these days without them using the term “weird.”

The two-term Minnesota governor has also been on cable news nonstop, which is part of the vetting process, showing how effective he is at defending Harris and his policies that have moved the state to the left. We should mention, however, that Walz does have more than a decade-long career in the House, which gives Republicans a trove of votes and floor statements to dig up that can be used against him.

Minnesota isn’t necessarily a battleground state, but Trump has insisted it’s in play. Walz, with his Midwest appeal, could easily endear himself in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that are in play.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is another person who has been in the mix, as a centrist governor from a ruby-red state. There’s no way he is going to deliver Kentucky but, just like Walz, he could appeal to White, Midwest voters. We don’t think she’ll choose him. But we could be wrong!

Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) is another person who has been in the mix. But expectations that he will be chosen have been dropping. He is not a union favorite. He was not an original sponsor of the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, often a litmus test among unions because it makes it easier to form and join a union. But just last week, as vice-presidential speculation ramped up, he said he’d support it.

Kelly was able to win two Senate races in a purple state in consecutive elections to finish McCain’s term and to serve his own. Kelly might be able to help Harris deliver Arizona, but it’s unlikely his appeal would extend to other states, including neighboring Nevada.

And, Kelly has a strong biography. He’s a former astronaut. His wife, former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, was severely injured in a shooting and has since launched an influential gun-control organization.

An 11th-hour possibility mentioned is Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.). Michigan is a key swing state and Peters is a strong union advocate. The chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, responsible for electing Democrats to the Senate, is likely to have been floated as a nod to both of those key constituencies, but he’s not going to be the nominee.

Vice-presidential nominees rarely win elections for a presidential nominee. But they can help lose elections (Sarah Palin.) Picking up voters is a plus, but most importantly the running mate should do no harm.

On the Hill

Schumer: ‘Every single one of our candidates’ is ahead

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is more optimistic about Democrats’ chance of holding onto their slim majority in the Senate with Harris now on top of the ticket, he told Leigh Ann and our colleague Liz Goodwin in an interview yesterday.

“Every single one of our candidates in the six battleground states is ahead,” Schumer said, referencing Democrats running tough Senate races in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Montana and Ohio. “They’re doing even better since Kamala Harris became the nominee.”

Though Schumer says all of his incumbents are running ahead, most recent public polls show Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.) trailing or tied with his opponent. No recent Montana Senate survey meets The Post’s polling standards.

All the Democrats in the battleground races have endorsed Harris except for Tester, who is keeping some distance from the vice president as he fights for his political life in his red state. Schumer said he was confident that Tester and his other incumbents would prevail, in part because of their deep connections to their state and in part because of the infrastructure funds and other investment they brought home to their states through federal legislation over the past few years.

“They represent their states more than anything else,” Schumer said. “Everyone knows Tester’s a Montanan, Sherrod Brown’s an [Ohioan]. That Bob Casey’s a Pennsylvanian.”

The Democrats were running ahead of their GOP challengers in many polls of the Senate races even as Biden was losing to Trump in those battlegrounds — a gap that seemed to defy political gravity. But some early polls suggest Harris is closing those gaps.

“It’s just like night to day,” Schumer said of having Harris at the top of the ticket. “Everyone feels like we’re on a path to victory.”

The majority leader declined to wade into a conversation about Harris’s choice for running mate, even as a member of his caucus, Sen. Mark Kelly, is in consideration. “I think Kamala will choose a great vice president,” he said. “I’m not going to comment further.”

Schumer said the data he has seen suggests that Harris is solidifying support from constituencies who were drifting away from President Biden, including younger people and voters of color. “And she’s not losing anybody in the middle or any of the older people,” Schumer said. “So far our data is showing she is not losing ground anywhere and she is gaining ground in a lot of places.”

Also, Schumer unveils the president-is-not-a-king bill

Schumer will unveil his “No Kings Act” today. It’s a response to the Supreme Court decision that granted Trump and all presidents immunity from prosecution for official acts.

Schumer’s bill aims to clarify that Congress, not the Supreme Court, determines who can be prosecuted for federal laws.

Because the High Court’s decision interpreted the Constitution, this bill is an attempt to circumvent the cumbersome and years-long process to amend the Constitution and instead legislate the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction. It would remove the ability of the Supreme Court to rule on constitutional challenges to this bill, should it be signed into law.

Republicans expected to block Child Tax Cut expansion

Presidential politics will be front-and-center on the Senate floor today as Senate Republicans are expected to block legislation to cut taxes for working families and extend some corporate tax breaks, probably dooming a bipartisan compromise that the House had overwhelmingly approved and raising the stakes on taxes for this fall’s elections, our colleague Jacob Bogage reports.

The $79 billion legislation would expand eligibility for the child tax credit, or CTC, among the lowest-income families and adjust payments for inflation for the 2024 and 2025 filing years.

The compromise between Senate Democrats and House Republicans would also bolster certain business tax credits — including deductions for research and development, interest expenses and investments in equipment — that were limited in an effort to cap the total costs of former president Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cut law.

With some exceptions, Republicans mostly oppose the measure, reasoning that they could write a more conservative tax bill in 2025 if they win control of Congress and the White House.

Schumer decided to hold the likely-to-fail procedural after Republican vice-presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) falsely suggested that Democrats don’t support the CTC as he doubled down on his comments describing Democrats as “a bunch of childless cat ladies.”

“There’s a lot of weird, bizarre stuff going around. Everyone is going to find out on Thursday who’s a supporter, particularly of large families,” said Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the co-author of the bill, invoking the Democratic fad of calling anything affiliated with Republicans “weird.”

At the White House

Biden privately wrestles with how to use the time left in his presidency

Biden appears largely reconciled to his tortured decision to bow out of the race, and is now comfortable enough with it to crack jokes, The Post’s Matt Viser writes.

For example: Last Monday, as Biden flew to Texas, he glanced at the television playing in the background, where guests on MSNBC were speculating over who Harris would pick as her running mate.

“Kamala and I talked,” Biden remarked. “I said she could pick me.” He waited a beat, then said he was joking, prompting laughter.

The moment “was a telling one after a politically tumultuous few weeks,” Matt writes, adding that Biden has started to recalibrate over the past few days.

“His public schedule has become lighter, in what those close to him describe as a conscious attempt to allow Harris to seize the spotlight,” Matt writes. “He has been soliciting advice over how to spend the last six months of a 48-year career as a federal officeholder, and he has come to see Harris’s potential election as a cornerstone of his legacy.

“The anger and bitterness from the lead-up to his decision to withdraw — when he felt cornered by members of his own party — seem to have given way to an attitude that is more accepting of the current moment.”

What we’re watching

Tennessee is voting

Tennessee is holding primary elections today. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is seeking a second term in the upper chamber, while nine House incumbents — seven Republicans and one Democrat — are vying to continue serving in office.

All eyes are on freshman Rep. Andy Ogles (R) and whether he can edge out a serious primary challenger. Courtney Johnston, a member of the Nashville Metro Council, has outraised Ogles and has campaigned on governing rather than serve as a roadblock to conservative legislation — a tension that has plagued the House Republican majority.

Ogles is a member of the House Freedom Caucus and is often one of the roughly dozen far-right members who demand an all-or-nothing approach to passing bills, serving as a thorn in the side of the GOP conference.

The campaign

Trump allies want to hit Harris’s record. He keeps talking about her race and gender.

There appears to be a significant mismatch between how Donald Trump’s staff wants to portray Harris and how Trump keeps talking about her, The Post’s Marianne LeVine and Josh Dawsey report.

Trump’s aids have said they aim to beat Harris by portraying her as a San Francisco liberal who is responsible for illegal border crossings and inflation. Yet in the past 48 hours, Trump has repeatedly deviated from that messaging to more familiar territory: personal attacks.

“Trump’s statements are emblematic of the broader challenge the GOP faces: Many of his aides and his Republican allies want to focus on Harris’s record,” Marianne and Josh write. “They have watched Democratic enthusiasm about the vice president’s campaign and believe that some of her personal qualities could help, not hurt her, with independent voters … But Trump himself keeps changing the subject.”

Harris responded last night to Trump’s remarks about her: “Let me just say: The American people deserve better. The American people deserve better,” she said at a historically Black sorority event in Houston. She called it “the same old show” of “divisiveness and disrespect,” our colleagues Cleve R. Wootson Jr. and Sabrina Rodriguez report.

The Media

Must-reads from The Post:

Viral

Our pet alligators used to eat our homework.